Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Public Debt And Political Changes Essay - 1517 Words

6.3Domestic Public Debt and Political Changes Figure 8 shows that domestic public debt has been aggravated since January revolution, as domestic public debt was 755.3 billion Egyptian pounds in 2010; and then increased to 2116.3billion Egyptian pounds in 2015. This means that domestic public debt has increased by 180% during period of revolutions. In spite the trend of domestic public debt before revolutions was positive; however, the change in domestic public debt was in average 77.2 billion Egyptian pounds during the time period (2006-2010); and then increased to 245.5 billion Egyptian pounds during the time period (2011-2015), with an increase of 218%. The only logical explanation for this significant inflation in domestic public debt is the occurrence of two successive revolutions in a short time period and their negative consequences on the political status in Egypt. A regression analysis between domestic public debt (as a dependent variable) and political risk sub-indicators (as explanatory variables) confirmed the validity of this suggested explanation. The analysis found a statistically significant negative relationship between domestic public debt and political stability and absence of violence ((R-Sq = 82.1% R-Sq(adj) = 80.5%,F statistic is 50.61 with p-value 0.000). See Appendix 13. Figure 8.Development of domestic public debt in Egypt Source: The Egyptian Cabinet, Information and Decision Support Center. 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